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DE RUEHSI #3166/01 3611306
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271306Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY TBILISI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8519
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 003166
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL GG
SUBJECT: SAAKASHVILI STRONG IN ZUGDIDI DISTRICT
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Mikheil Saakashvili is strong in Samegrelo
and its capital, Zugdidi, the home of many displaced persons
from the conflict in Abkhazia. His National Movement is
well-organized, well-funded and has many campaign volunteers.
As a result, he is likely to gather a majority of the
district's voters, of whom 76,000 are expected to go to the
polls. By contrast, the opposition seems focused on
complaints about the voters' list and harassment by police
and/or National Movement supporters. However, despite their
insistence about the unfairness of "dead souls" on the voters
list, they do not explain clearly how such names would be
translated into votes in the ballot box. They are far less
active in seeking votes door to door than Saakashvili's
supporters. They have not sought the free time available to
them on the local TV station. While Embassy officers were in
Zugdidi, Saakashvili was able to turn many local citizens out
for a concert held in a driving rain. End Summary.
¶2. (SBU) Zugdidi is the largest city in Samegrelo/Zemo
Svaneti region and an important agricultural services center
for Western Georgia. It is also the home of a majority of
the displaced persons from the conflict in Abkhazia. On
December 17-18, Econoff and two Embassy LES employees visited
the city to learn more about the status of the Georgian
presidential campaign. They learned that Saakashvili
demonstrates substantial strength in the district, which has
about 120,000 voters in the city and surrounding villages,
divided into 104 precincts/polling places. The opposition in
Zugdidi seems poorly organized and more focused on complaints
about the voters' list, access to media, and alleged
intimidation by police and Saakashvili supporters than on
"retail politics" and getting out the vote. By contrast, the
Saakashvili campaign is well-organized, with a top layer of
Tbilisi-based campaign directors and paid workers, who
supervise numerous volunteers. According to the Zugdidi
National Movement campaign chairman, Lasha Damenia, there is
one volunteer for every 100 voters in the district. These
volunteers actively encourage their assigned group to vote
for Saakashvili. Posters for Saakashvili are everywhere,
even plastered on a Coca-Cola delivery truck. Nothing
similar for the other candidates was visible away from their
campaign headquarters.
THE GAMGEBELI
-------------
¶3. (SBU) On November 17, we met with Aleksander Kobalia,
Gamgebeli (governor) of Zugdidi district, and a member of
Saakashvili's National Movement. Kobalia said that National
Movement polls are showing Saakashvili with 82 percent
support in the Zugdidi district. He attributes the high
level of support to the Saakashvili government's success in
bringing 24 hour electricity supply and resurfacing of roads
to the region. It is likely also a result of the Saakashvili
administration's strong support to the IDP population which
lives here and also in the Gali district of Abkhazia.
Kobalia's father is an influential businessman in Zugdidi and
owner of the local television station, Odishi. The
opposition points to this fact as support for its allegations
that it cannot get time on the station.
THE DISTRICT ELECTION COMMISSION CHAIR
--------------------------------------
¶4. (SBU) We also met with Nana Okujava, Chair of the Zugdidi
District Election Commission. She said she was engaged in
making corrections to the voters' list, which has been a key
complaint by the opposition in the district. However, she
said that she had had no face to face discussions with
opposition representatives since the elections were
announced. Okujava agreed with Kobalia that Saakashvili's
strength derives from infrastructure improvements. However,
she added that many Zugdidi residents believe that
Saakashvili is the only hope for solving the problem of
reintegration of Abkhazia into Georgia. Zugdidi was the site
of a protest organized by the opposition prior to the major
demonstration on November 2. Okujava said that more people
came from Tbilisi to participate in the Zugdidi demonstration
than from Zugdidi itself. A special problem in Zugdidi is
registering and accounting for Internally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) from Abkhazia. Many of these people live in Gali, in
Abkhazia, and come to Zugdidi to vote. Estimates of their
number we heard in Zugdidi ranged from 33,000 to 54,000.
GAMKRELIDZE'S SUPPORTERS
------------------------
¶5. (SBU) Bachuki Kardava is the chair of the National
Democratic Party, and lives in Tbilisi. His party is allied
with Davit Gamkrelidze's New Rights party. Kardava is
TBILISI 00003166 002 OF 003
heading the Gamkrelidze campaign out of a comfortable house
in Zugdidi. He said that the New Rightists believe they can
pick up a significant number of votes in Samegrelo.
Gamkrelidze plans to visit Zugdidi soon. Kardava accused the
local government of dominating the political process in
Zugdidi an
d intimidating voters, making it hard to find
people to campaign for the opposition. In particular, he
complained that he had recruited people to represent New
Rights on Precinct Election Commissions, but that they had
quit after feeling pressured by the National Movement. He
added that he will submit his list of pollwatchers as late as
possible to ensure they do not receive undue attention from
the authorities. Kardava sounded a recurring theme by
claiming that there are lots of "dead souls" on the voters'
list. Because the election was called on short notice, there
was little time to improve the list, he said. On the other
hand, he said his campaign headquarters had not been
subjected to harassment and he had no problem with getting
the media to cover his campaign events. He has talked on the
telephone with Okujava at the DEC. Like his candidate
Gamkrelidze, Kardava suspects the other opposition parties
are (wrongly) preparing themselves more for January 6, the
day after the election, than for the January 5 election
itself. Kardava said that he will be vigilant at the polls
to prevent falsification of the vote protocols and to watch
for evidence of "carousel voting". Any result that gives
Saakashvili more than 70 percent of the vote will be
fraudulent, he added.
GACHECHILADZE'S SUPPORTERS
--------------------------
¶6. (SBU) We then met with the United Council of the
Opposition, whose candidate is Levan Gachechiladze, the
regional coordinator for the Tavesupleba (Freedom) Party was
Tengiz Gergedava, from Tbilisi. About seven or eight other
local party workers participated in the meeting. Gergedava
said that one major reason for disenchantment with
Saakashvili is politicization of the military and police, and
the lack of checks and balances on police power. One of the
party workers complained specifically about being arrested
"for no reason" in 2005. Other complaints focused on the
period before the November 2 Tbilisi demonstrations, with
participants in the October Zugdidi rally allegedly receiving
anonymous telephone threats. Light punishments of National
Movement supporters who tried to break up the rally received
criticism. Regarding the election campaign, the party
workers said that they cannot rent space on billboards
because the billboard owners are afraid. Saakashvili posters
are ubiquitous now in Zugdidi. They also complained about
two instances of police contacts with opposition supporters
that engendered fear. A worker from Poti was especially
bitter, saying that the police there are controlling and
monitoring people who visit the party office, and that the
party flag was knocked off the roof of the building. (Note:
at no time did we notice any police presence anywhere near
the party offices we visited in Zugdidi.) Gergedava was
concerned about the voters' list, as was Kardava. He also
alleged that in Zugdidi, the National Movement is putting
people on the Precinct Election Commissions who are
pretending to be New Rights or Labor representatives.
¶7. (SBU) Asked what they are doing to campaign, the workers
said that people do go door to door to seek votes, and they
hold meetings to which supporters can come. Gachechiladze is
getting his fair share of free television and radio time on
national TV and radio, they said. However, they have not
requested any free time on the local TV station, Odishi,
because they believe any such request is useless, given that
it is controlled by the Governor and his family. They have
requested and received time on local radio. Gachechiladze is
coming to Zugdidi on December 26, they said. The Poti
representative claimed that 4000 people saw Gachechiladze
when he came to Poti on December 9, but the event was ignored
by the national media.
¶8. (SBU) Gergedava was cagey about the opposition's plans for
after the elections. He claimed that it is Saakashvili who
is making up the idea that the opposition will not accept the
results of the polls and will return to the streets.
However, he feels that the elections are being subverted in
the pre-election period and the international election
monitors are focused on election day. The opposition will
review the reports by the election monitors "with care", he
said.
LOCAL TELEVISION
----------------
¶9. (SBU) Gocha Minjoria, the director of the local Odishi TV
TBILISI 00003166 003 OF 003
station, told us that the opposition parties prefer to spend
their money on national TV stations rather than on local TV.
Only the National Movement is spending money on local
advertising, he said. Therefore the National Movement is not
using its free time on the station. Moreover, he said, the
opposition parties have not claimed the free time to which
they are entitled. They have called regarding how to get
time, but have not followed up. The station has 8
journalists who are covering all the parties equally, he
said. The station has a grant to hold a debate on December
28 and is inviting the local representatives of the
candidates to participate.
SAAKASHVILI'S SUPPORTERS
------------------------
¶10. (SBU) The weather in Zugdidi on December 17 was cold and
steadily raining. Nevertheless, many people turned out for a
concert in support of Saakashvili. Saakashvili's Dutch-born
wife, Sandra Roloefs, won praise for her singing of a
traditional Mingrelian folk song, watched over by a beaming
Saakashvili. Even though the onlookers were bussed in by the
National Movement from surrounding villages, the turnout was
impressive given the weather, which was truly atrocious. On
December 18, the National Movement coordinator, Lasha
Damenia, told us that 8000 people had come to the concert.
The town was certainly jammed with traffic the evening of the
concert, even if that figure was exaggerated, as is often the
case in Georgia. Damenia stressed that the opposition
parties are very inactive. The National Movement, he said,
tries to focus on local problems people may be having,
responding to letters complaining about such things as
unpaved streets. He showed us the letter Saakashvili has
sent to senior citizens promising to raise pensions if he is
elected. Saakashvili has visited Zugdidi three times since
the election was announced, and will visit two more times
before January 5. No opposition candidate has yet appeared
personally in Zugdidi.
¶11. (SBU) Damenia responded to concerns about the voter
lists. While the United Opposition claimed that 30,000 of
the 120,000 names on the list are erroneous, Damenia
estimated that it is really no more than 2000 or so. He
dismissed the idea of carousel voting as very difficult,
given the presence of TV cameras in the polling places
focused on the ballot box and registration table, as well as
other safeguards. Although he knows what "carousel voting"
is, he said it is as a practical matter all but impossible to �
00A;organize effectively. He estimates that of the 120,000 or so
registered voters, 76,000 will vote on January 5 in Zugdidi,
and of those, 56,000 will vote for Saakashvili. He bases his
estimates on the very active work of the National Movement
volunteers. These campaigners visit each of the 100 voters
they are responsible for and determine their preferences.
For those voters who lean to candidates other than
Saakashvili, he said, the volunteers try to find relatives or
respected friends who support Saakashvili and will try to
persuade them to change their votes.
NATELASHVILI AND PATARKATSISHVILI
---------------------------------
¶12. (SBU) We found Shalva Natelashvili's Labor Party
headquarters in the city center, but its entrance was quite
hard to find and there was only a caretaker present who could
tell us nothing about his campaign in Zugdidi. We saw
nothing of Badri Patarkatshishvili's campaign, although we
heard from several people who told us he was paying 200 lari
to individuals to work the polls for him.
TEFFT
Wikileaks: Georgia 